Myanmar | Refused aid

While a mobile medical team was treating earthquake victims at a Buddhist monastery in the village of Aidai on the afternoon of April 21, the village and monastery were attacked by the junta's air force. Two monks and four local residents were injured. Aidai is located in the Sagaing region, near the epicenter of the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck on March 28.

At the same time, the People's Defense Forces of the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) in Sagaing are increasingly putting the army under pressure. According to opposition groups, the rulers have carried out 140 air strikes and 24 artillery attacks on civilian targets since the earthquake, killing 160 people.

According to the United Nations, almost half of the more than two million people affected by the earthquake had still not received any aid more than three weeks after the disaster. This aid is being limited by unspecified restrictions on access to essential services, according to the UN. The Special Advisory Council on Myanmar (SAC-M) is more explicit: "The military simply does not want aid to reach the areas controlled by the resistance," former Australian Human Rights Commissioner Chris Sidoti told ABC. SAC-M is a group of former diplomats from various countries that provides a platform for the democratic movement in Myanmar.

Prominent democracy activist Khin Ohmar accuses the junta of "lacking empathy for the people," claiming it is using aid for earthquake victims as a weapon to take revenge on the resistance .

Nearly 4,000 people were killed and more than 5,100 injured as a result of the earthquake. According to the regime, the earthquake destroyed more than 60,000 homes, 3,500 monasteries, 2,360 schools, 167 health facilities, and 155 bridges.

A bad omen for the generals – who, like most of their compatriots, are highly superstitious – is the collapse of their magnificent new capital, Naypyidaw, inaugurated 20 years ago, as a result of the earthquake. However, their political power had already been shaken. Only one-fifth of the country remains firmly in the hands of the regime, which has also lost control of most of its borders.

The big question is whether the junta can remain in power thanks to its air force and weapons supplies from Russia and China. Initial signs, however, indicate that former supporters are slowly distancing themselves. The NGO International Crisis Group (ICG) notes: "The fragmentation of the state of Myanmar has prompted India to adjust its foreign policy stance toward its neighbor." India has begun to move closer to the regime's opponents, who now control a large part of the Indian border.

The situation is similar on the border with China. According to the security and political journal "Geopolitical Monitor" in April, China supports the junta both with weapons and diplomatically. On the other hand, however, it also maintains good relations with the rebel groups operating on the border with China, which are "completely dependent on Beijing for their material survival." A conclusion of the report "China's Geopolitical Balancing Act in Post-Coup Myanmar" is: "China's double-standard policy in Myanmar is far more pragmatic and economic than ideological in nature and stems exclusively from its geopolitical interests."

A meeting in Bangkok in April between junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in his capacity as acting chairman of the Southeast Asian Nations Association (ASEAN), caused a stir. Officially, the meeting was about humanitarian aid for earthquake victims and an extension of the ceasefire. Much to the junta's chagrin, Anwar also met with representatives of the shadow government, the National Unity Organization (NUG).

The already dire situation in Myanmar, where almost 20 million people were already dependent on humanitarian aid before the disaster, has worsened further since the earthquake . And things aren't going to get any better when the monsoon begins in mid-May with its torrential rains and storms. Tens of thousands of people are living in emergency shelters. "These are made of materials that cannot withstand extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain," warns the aid organization Save the Children.