Three years of war in Ukraine: Merz will rearm and disappoint the Ukrainians – Commentary

Three years have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine . Three years in which the West was shocked, outraged and - at least rhetorically - determined. But while the Ukrainians continue to suffer from Russian drone attacks after 1,096 days, political Berlin is once again showing that there is often a gap between loud announcements and actual action.

Germany, which likes to portray itself as a moral and political leader in Europe, will have problems in the coming years. Morality is no longer a category used in major international politics. Moscow, Beijing , Washington, the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula and numerous players in the Global South have understood this. Whether this is also the case in Berlin, Paris and London? It is unclear.

Germany will focus on rearmament in the coming years

The next federal government - probably a coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD - will, that much is certain, focus on rearmament. Chancellor Friedrich Merz , leading foreign policy figures from the CDU and representatives of the Boris Pistorius SPD will find common ground here. But anyone who looks closely and listens to Ukrainian politics will quickly realise that German foreign policy is one thing above all: half-hearted.

The promised arms deliveries often arrive too late or in too small a number, and there is no sign of a clear, decades-long strategic vision for Ukraine policy. Diplomatic initiatives that achieve anything? None. The political leadership in Kyiv has been waiting longingly for new accents from Berlin for months, and is now hoping for a determined Ukraine supporter in Merz. But one crucial question remains: How is this supposed to work without the USA ?

The transatlantic partnership, once the backbone of Bonn's foreign policy, appears to be on shaky ground more than ever. US President Donald Trump is banking on a rapid peace process, he is making concessions to Vladimir Putin, and he couldn't care less about liberal European sensitivities. Sooner or later, the White House and the Kremlin will negotiate about Ukraine - with or without Europe.

Migration and economy are more important than Ukraine

And a Germany under Merz? It will first focus on domestic politics, migration and the economy, rather than supporting Ukraine for decades without an exit strategy. In any case, the Kremlin will have more staying power on the Ukraine issue than the Western European governments. Putin is on a historic mission; he wants to be on the same level as Ivan the Terrible or Peter the Great. The Europeans, on the other hand, have to fight arduous election campaigns every four years - that's exhausting.

That is why even a Chancellor Merz will have to disappoint the Ukrainians now and again. There will hardly be any "German boots" on Ukrainian soil under the first male CDU Chancellor since Helmut Kohl. But those same European ground troops are demanding Ukrainian deserters, for example - or alternatively a quick ceasefire so that the bleeding of the Ukrainians stops. But the German political establishment cannot (currently) come to terms with either option. Half-hearted, that is.

While the political elites in Berlin will be debating the right strategy for Ukraine for weeks to come, the Ukrainian citizens are once again left unconsulted. They are the ones who suffer daily from Russian drone terror. Their voices are barely heard in the political decision-making centers. Instead, there is discussion about arms exports and mobilization as if the war were an abstract game of chess and not a brutal everyday reality that must end as quickly as possible.