Where trouble threatens with black-red - "If Merz insists on his core demand, coalition will be very difficult or prevented"

After the election, everything is moving towards a grand coalition, even if it is no longer particularly large. There is one issue that dominates everything before negotiations begin: the debate about the debt brake , which may still be reformed with the majorities in the old Bundestag.

A Merz chancellorship could have a significant impact on the scope of action available to a new government.

But of course there are other important issues. How far apart are the parties, what compromises are conceivable? An overview:

Both the CDU/CSU and the SPD have ideas on how to stimulate the economy . Of the various ideas, from the Made in Germany bonus to tax relief , some seem more targeted, others simple and reliable.

It would probably be possible to combine the best of both worlds – if the money could be found for it.

Could the black-red coalition come together on migration ? Migration expert Daniel Thym thinks this is conceivable. "The key is to combine the CDU/CSU's promise of rejections at German borders with the SPD's focus on European cooperation."

One possibility: rejections could only be selective for certain people and border sections and for a limited period of time.

In return, fundamental reforms should be initiated, for example in cooperation with third countries and in structural reforms, "which go well beyond the important but half-hearted EU asylum compromise".

And Thym points out: “Since the CDU/CSU and SPD are part of the government in all federal states, a federalism reform in asylum law could succeed.”

Raphael Bossong, migration expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes that the negotiations will be very challenging given the strong domestic political tension surrounding the issue. It will be difficult for the Union to "live up to the expectations it has raised with its five-point plan."

If Friedrich Merz continues to insist on the core demand to reject people at all German internal borders , “this would lead to massive domestic and European political conflicts and make a coalition very difficult or even impossible ,” believes Bossong.

However, he believes that reaching an agreement on more powers for the security authorities would be relatively easy.

How much Pistorius will a grand coalition dare to do? That is a question that the SPD in particular has to clarify for itself. The departure of Olaf Scholz and parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich could bring more support for Ukraine. It will also depend on who negotiates this issue for the SPD.

It is also conceivable that the question of a Taurus delivery will not be explicitly regulated in the coalition agreement. Then Chancellor Merz would have room to maneuver. An agreement on conscription should be quite possible. All sides are aware that a partial reintroduction will be unavoidable.

"I find it particularly regrettable where the CDU/CSU and SPD agree without any problems: Both shy away from real reforms of the social security systems , even though the costs will soon no longer be manageable," says Stefan Korioth, constitutional lawyer and member of the Tagesspiegel expert panel on the election.

"This is a huge problem, also for the federal budget in view of the sharp increase in federal subsidies from tax revenue. Anyone who ignores it now will be caught up in it during the legislative period."

Pensions, health insurance, care : There is a financial problem everywhere, in the case of the pension fund especially with regard to the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation. For the SPD, however, the promise of stable pensions was a pillar of the election campaign and the Union also did not want to bring itself to promise reforms. So it could be that there is little dispute here - and that is exactly what will sooner or later become a disadvantage for the country.

The issue of citizen's income will also be discussed. The Union has mobilized massively on this issue in recent years and promised during the election campaign to fundamentally restructure the system. This affects the SPD's self-image as a welfare state party.

Before the election, leading comrades, such as the outgoing parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich, had already admitted that changes would have to be made to the citizen's income. The question will be how far his party follows him.

The right to vote could become a sticking point. On Monday, Merz raised the issue of a reform of the reform that the SPD had agreed on together with the Greens and the FDP.

The background is that 18 of the 23 constituency winners who will not enter the Bundestag come from the Union. The CDU leader called the new seat allocation rules "unacceptable", and not only because they were particularly detrimental to his party: "Such a right to vote damages our democracy."

The SPD has always vehemently defended the reform, citing the need to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

By Karin Christmann, Christopher Ziedler