According to a decisive factor: they anticipated with artificial intelligence how much soybeans will yield
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Using artificial intelligence, a startup has been able to predict the potential yields of soybeans this season, depending on whether or not there will be rain until the end of the crop cycle. The analysis took into account data from the last 40 years and compared the results recorded in the periods with the highest and lowest rainfall.
This analysis revealed that, if the rains accompany, the Buenos Aires producers in Rojas could harvest 4245 kilos per hectare (kg/ha), in Pergamino 3542 kg/ha, in Venado Tuerto (Santa Fe) 4488 kg/ha and in La Carlota (Córdoba) 4159 kg/ha. In contrast, if it is dry, the yields in these locations would be 4082 kg/ha in Rojas, 4393 kg/ha in Venado Tuerto, 3864 kg/ha in La Carlota and 3293 kg/ha in Pergamino.
The study was conducted by YielData, a firm that developed a tool designed to predict agricultural yields by combining meteorological, soil and agricultural management information through the use of artificial intelligence. In addition to calculating average yield, the system allows for the projection of scenarios with the maximum and minimum values that could be reached depending on the weather conditions.
Other locations were also analyzed, where it was observed that yields vary depending on the availability of rainfall. In a wet year, the expected yields would be 4132 kg/ha in Arrecifes, 4177 kg/ha in Chacabuco, 3940 kg/ha in Inés Indart, 3585 kg/ha in Roberto Cano, 4541 kg/ha in Salto, 4065 kg/ha in Los Mistoles and 3999 kg/ha in Monte del Rosario . In contrast, if it is dry, the projected values would be 3905 kg/ha in Arrecifes, 4162 kg/ha in Chacabuco, 3790 kg/ha in Inés Indart, 3451 kg/ha in Roberto Cano, 4357 kg/ha in Salto, 3687 kg/ha in Los Mistoles and 3567 kg/ha in Monte del Rosario .
This analysis also allows for the assessment of the risks associated with each scenario. “ In most cases, a wet end of the campaign not only guarantees a better average yield, but also reduces the risk of obtaining extremely low yields . In contrast, years with a dry end of the campaign present a more volatile scenario, where some plots can maintain their productivity, but others are exposed to drastic drops,” explained Mariano Tamburrino, one of the founding partners of the startup.
In Buenos Aires, the data showed marked differences between the minimum yields in wet and dry years. “ In Arrecifes, for example, the minimum yield in years with wet cycle ends (3329 kg/ha) is significantly higher than in dry cycle ends (1656 kg/ha), demonstrating vulnerability to lack of rain. A similar pattern is repeated in Pergamino and Salto, where dry cycle ends can generate worrying minimum yields,” he said. In fact, in Pergamino the minimum yield in a dry year could fall to 1667 kg/ha, that is, almost half of what the minimum would be in a wet year, while in Salto the projected minimum is 2278 kg/ha.
A particular case is found in Chacabuco, where the differences between wet and dry scenarios are almost imperceptible. If the rains are favorable, the expected yield is 4177 kg/ha, while if they are not, it would be 4162 kg/ha. “ In Salto, the maximum values even slightly favor the years where the end of the cycle would be dry, which suggests that, with adequate management, it is possible to maintain good yields despite a lower availability of water . However, the risk of sudden drops is still present,” added Tamburrino.
In Córdoba, the impact of water is even more evident. In Río Primero, the minimum yield in years with a wet cycle (2,640 kilos) is almost double that of dry years (1,410 kilos), which underlines the importance of the rainfall regime in this region. Totoral presents a similar situation: although the average is also higher in wet years (4,060 vs. 3,820 kilos), the most striking difference is observed in the productive floors, where dry years can reduce the minimum yield to less than half.
In Santa Fe, unlike Buenos Aires and Córdoba, General López showed great productive stability. Average yields remain around 4,600 kilos, with minimal differences between the end of the wet and dry cycles. “Here, soybeans seem less dependent on rainfall, which suggests that factors such as soil quality or agronomic practices play a key role in yield stability,” he said.
"If the rains are good, it is likely that yields will remain at good levels in a large part of the Pampas region. On the other hand, a scenario of the end of the dry cycle could compromise the productive floors, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as Río Primero, Totoral, Pergamino and Salto," concluded Tamburrino.
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