Can Spain spend 5% on defense?
Donald Trump already conveyed in his first diplomatic contacts with Pedro Sánchez's government that Spain should buy more liquefied natural gas and more weapons. It is essential to frame the NATO summit currently being held in The Hague against this premise: the White House believes the Spanish government is spending too little on purchases from the United States, and Trump makes no secret of it. "Spain is a problem," he proclaims.
Trump and Sánchez, at a G-20 meeting in Japan in 2019
Chema Moya/EfeThe Alliance summit was preceded by Pedro Sánchez's declaration last Sunday at the Moncloa Palace, announcing that Spain would not be obliged to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. The images went viral on social media. The president announced that Spain would increase military spending to 2.1% of GDP (one-tenth of GDP is about 1.6 billion euros, so the threshold rises to 33.6 billion euros per year), but not to 5% (80 billion euros). The difference is notable. X burned during those hours with different interpretations of the letter signed by Rutte, with a climax: Sánchez's post urging someone to translate the letter to Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
Here, Alberto. Have someone translate it for you. Let's see if that clears up your doubts. pic.twitter.com/Dg5D9nrl2t
— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) June 22, 2025
Sánchez's statement had an immediate impact on the allies. The controversy escalated hours later when Rutte said he believed Spain would have to reach 3.5% defense spending. Rutte, although Sánchez calls him a "friend," is a leader who has already been involved in some controversy with Spain. When he was Prime Minister of the Netherlands, he crossed paths with a truck driver who told him: "Please don't give that money to the Italians and the Spanish." "No, no, no," he replied.
Hours later, the Financial Times reported that a torpedo named Pedro Sánchez had landed in The Hague. “Spain's decision not to comply with NATO's commitment to its members spending 5% of their GDP on defense has dented efforts to show unity ahead of a leaders' summit aimed at appeasing US President Donald Trump,” the prestigious British newspaper reported.
Read also The GDP of Rota and Morón Enric Juliana
The PP believes Sánchez is a "con man" and, in a new hyperbolic display, Feijóo has stated that the Prime Minister should not represent Spain at the NATO summit. The PP is treading on shaky ground where it could slip, as it did when it called the gas exemption an "Iberian scam."
Sánchez should not represent Spain at NATO today. pic.twitter.com/uMUxdCxDBo
— Alberto Núñez Feijóo (@NunezFeijoo) June 24, 2025
Sánchez managed to save an important setback on Sunday. Rutte's letter contains a key term: flexibility. If the allies had demanded that Spain increase defense spending to 5% already, the government would have a serious problem today. Perhaps the coalition with Sumar would have collapsed, totally or partially, and today it would have taken a step up in the already complicated national political landscape. This was not the case, and Sánchez found some breathing space.
The question that arises is: can Spain achieve 5% of GDP spending on defense? Even meeting Rutte's estimated figure of 3.5% would raise military investment to €56 billion. It seems complicated. Budgets are finite. Families cannot stretch their spending without limits. The same thing happens to businesses, which must resort to debt, with caution. And it also happens to countries. If Spain dedicates a significant portion of its public spending to pensions, healthcare, education, care for dependents, etc., investing up to €80 billion in weapons each year seems a Herculean task. The challenge escalates if, in addition to this spending mix, we add the increasingly pressing urgency of increasing public investment in what is already the major social problem that threatens to frustrate the present and future of a generation: housing. "A real 5% of defense spending would take Europe by storm," journalist Esteban Hernández noted.
It must be emphasized again and again: a real 5% defense spending would wipe out Europe. Of course, it would substantially damage the Spanish economy, but many others as well. It's not just pressure from Trump and the US; it's the absurd will of the northern countries...
— Esteban Hernández (@HdezEsteban) June 24, 2025
The discussion about Spanish military spending also comes at a time of economic expansion for the country. But what about when the cycle reverses? Will Europe have the economic muscle to do so? These questions will one day have to be answered, because that moment will come.
The defense industry also doesn't see this as feasible. Indra's CEO, José Vicente de los Mozos, acknowledged a few weeks ago that time is needed for the Spanish defense industry to improve its processes and supply chain. Without this improvement, spending cannot be channeled or optimized, he acknowledged. In other words, Spanish companies cannot currently assume defense spending of 5% of GDP. Therefore, the only solution would be to purchase material produced in other countries. Perhaps this is Trump's true intention. Yesterday, Trump himself published an SMS allegedly sent to him by Rutte, in which he stated that "Europe will pay big, and it will be your victory."
Ahead of the NATO summit, Trump posts what appears to be a heartfelt message signed by Rutte congratulating him on his “decisive action” in Iran. On defense spending, the screenshot says, “It hasn’t been easy, but we’ve gotten everyone to sign on for 5%.” https://t.co/EE3VAogNp3 pic.twitter.com/CgYTVCHLHG
— Dori Toribio (@DoriToribio) June 24, 2025
Spain, incidentally, has yet to make a decision on which aircraft will replace the Navy's obsolete Harriers. One option is to purchase the American F-35s, produced by the world's largest military company, Lockheed Martin. A company executive was trying to lobby in Madrid a few weeks ago to unblock this purchase.
The focus of defense spending must now be on the military capabilities that Spain can contribute to NATO. There are plenty of them. Troops abroad, fighter jets, frigates, the new S-80 submarine... and Rota and Morón. The US bases in Spain are a strategic enclave for the Pentagon, as Enric Juliana points out .
Sánchez has played his cards right, and that sets him apart from other leaders. Perhaps that's why he's one of the few leaders around the world who have survived the changing times. There are significant differences between the picture of the 2022 NATO summit in Madrid and the one in The Hague. Biden, Scholz, Draghi, Johnson, and Costa, among others, have all fallen in that time. But the tsunami can't defeat Sánchez, for now, and this is a factor to consider at the national level as well: the protagonist of "Manual de Resistencia" is prepared to last until 2027. And after that, we'll see.
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