What are the implications of Merz winning the elections in Germany?

It remains unclear exactly what the new German government will look like, and it is likely to be weeks before coalition talks between Friedrich Merz 's Christian Democratic alliance (CDU/CSU) and other parties reach an agreement and Merz becomes chancellor.

However, if his campaign statements are to be believed, Merz will take Germany in a different direction than current Chancellor Olaf Scholz , and even different from the Germany that Angela Merkel, also of the CDU, led for 16 years, until 2021.

For example, last month Merz unsuccessfully lobbied the German parliament to pass new migration measures with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. This marked a clear departure from Merkel's pledge to welcome refugees.

But many other issues are in focus as Germany faces a possible U-turn on policy, from nuclear energy and a more aggressive line with China to plans to restart the German-French axis to boost trade with the European Union.

The list is long and ranges from areas such as defense, environment , mobility, trade, agriculture, commerce, financial services, technology and health, among others.

For Jesús López Almejo, an analyst in geopolitics and international relations and a researcher at the National Council of Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (Mexico), Germany has turned to the right because it is seeking economic responses to the slowdown and subsequent recession it has suffered over the past two years.

He also believes that the average voter in Germany, seeing that the government in power had not resolved their needs, opted for the one who promised to resolve them.

Days before the election, which was held on Sunday, Merz issued a stark warning that Europe must be prepared to defend itself without the United States, and that if he wins he would hold security talks with Britain and France, Europe's two nuclear powers. He also said he would implement broad and far-reaching policies to expand Germany's defense industry.

On the other hand, a Merz-led government will put less emphasis on climate change than Scholz's coalition. Merz expressed concern during the election campaign about the impact of climate policy on business, promised to put economic growth above all other concerns and led a call to dismantle several EU green regulations.

On trade, he could take a tougher line with Russia and China and rekindle old friendships with other EU leaders . Here Merz has his work cut out for him if he is to link Germany's export-led economy with global growth regions and countries. He recognises that a functioning Franco-German axis can create more trade deals, more certainty for businesses and, eventually, a stronger Europe.

Merz is inheriting an economy in recession and Germany's industrial giants are reeling and shedding jobs. Merz is expected to act. His party's manifesto called for champions of "Made in Germany."

To learn more about Friedrich Merz's victory and its implications for Germany, we spoke in more detail with Professor Jesús López Almejo.

1. Friedrich Merz, a conservative, won the elections in Germany and a far-right party is now the second political force in the country. What does this tell us?

–Germany has shifted to the right as it seeks economic answers to the slowdown and subsequent recession it has suffered over the past two years as a result of its rivalry with Russia and the subsequent trade and economic disconnection.

As is often the case during economic crises, xenophobia takes hold and migrants are blamed for the additional ills that this brings, such as unemployment, low wages or insecurity.

The average voter, seeing that the government in power is not addressing his needs, opts for the political options that promise to address them. That is what we see right now in Germany.

2. The right has another world leader, another country. Should this be a cause for concern or alarm?

–This is cyclical. Germany is the country that has shouldered the brunt of European economic aid for Ukraine , and the one that has suffered the most from the energy crisis resulting from having allowed itself to be dragged by the Biden administration into an indirect war against Russia, which it was clear from the start that it could not win.

3. It seems that we like to talk in terms of left or right, conservative or liberal, etc. Is this how we should see or think every time there are elections in some country?

–The analysis is more complex than just the left-right or conservative-liberal duality. However, both dualities are categories of analysis that help us locate frequencies, causalities and correlations.

For example, it is worth remembering that conservatives seek to preserve an order that favors a few over the majority. On the other hand, liberals are defined as those who seek to break with a restrictive order and broaden horizons in a multifactorial way.

However, these definitions would also need to be clarified by context, dominant ideologies or sectors.

4. One of Merz's first statements was to criticize President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict in Ukraine. He also said that he wants real European independence from the United States. What do you think about this?

–Merz’s response is populist and unsubstantiated. First of all, Merz was employed by and linked to the interests of one of the world’s largest investment funds, BlackRock. Secondly, having voluntarily disconnected itself from Russia, Germany needs large-scale energy resources and competitive automotive, steel and aluminium, railway and technology industries.

It is up to the United States to decide whether Germany can survive as an economic power or collapse. All it takes is the imposition of tariffs on strategic German sectors or the suspension of car purchases for the United States to shake Germany. In addition, Merz has developed an extreme anti-Russian discourse to the point of threatening to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine to hit Russia deep inside.

Without US military aid, Germany would quickly be subdued by Russia with severe damage similar to that of World War II, something Europe has been trying to avoid for decades.