Bercy rules out the risk of a "massive increase" in electricity prices from 2026

Bercy is stepping up after the publication of a study by UFC-Que Choisir. In it, the consumer association warns of a surge in electricity bills starting next year due to the reform of the electricity market in France. The association believes that the mechanism chosen by the government in the finance law to replace the current system, which ends on December 31, 2025, will lead to "making the French pay a high price for their electricity."

"This reform, negotiated on the sly between the government and EDF, will automatically lead to a massive increase in electricity prices, to the detriment of consumers," states UFC-Que Choisir.

This would result in consumers paying "an average of 19% more, or up to 250 euros more per year for an average household" if the reform were to apply this year. UFC-Que Choisir justifies basing its assessment on 2025 by the uncertainties surrounding the parameters that will be taken into account to determine the level of regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRV) in 2026 and in particular the prices that will be observed by the end of the year on the wholesale markets.

On Monday evening, the Ministry of the Economy rejected these conclusions, considering that "the calculation thus carried out is biased" because the study published by UFC-Que Choisir proposes a calculation associating current data with a mechanism that will not come into force until 2026, without taking into account other parameters. According to Bercy, the simulations carried out show that "the transfer to the consumer provided for by the finance law for 2025 leads to a level of TRVs on January 1, 2026 almost identical to the current level ." "This result indicates that the planned transfer is working," it believes.

For UFC-Que Choisir, one of the major differences between this new regulation and the one still applied this year concerns the way of calculating the costs of electricity supply. Today, part of the supply is ensured via a mechanism called Arenh (Regulated Access to Historic Nuclear Electricity), which constitutes the part of the supply linked to the costs of EDF's nuclear production. "From now on, the supply will go entirely through the market," summarizes the association.

"The supply smoothed over two years makes it possible to cushion market fluctuations and contributes to the general objective of price stability," Bercy assures, however.