NATO top targets of Russian disinformation

During the NATO summit in The Hague, cybersecurity and combating disinformation are a priority for the Dutch security services. After all, soldiers and diplomats of the Western alliance are regularly targeted by hackers affiliated with Russian intelligence services. This became apparent, for example, in the run-up to the NATO summit in Lithuania in 2023, when pro-Russian hackers tried to infiltrate the networks and crucial infrastructure of dozens of NATO member states.

In addition to cyberattacks, Russia is also spreading disinformation on a large scale to undermine Western support for Ukraine and influence discussions. Around the NATO summit in the US last year, Russian-linked hackers shared fake NATO press releases. In response to the storm of disinformation, NATO began disseminating what it calls “accurate information” via social media, its website and campaigns after the last summit.

“We’re going to see another wave of disinformation during this NATO summit,” predicts Pekka Kallioniemi, a Finnish expert on social media and online disinformation who has become a prominent critic of Russian propaganda on social media in recent years. He is best known for his so-called “Vatnik Soups”: threads on X or videos on YouTube in which he discusses certain pro-Russian propaganda tactics and (Western) people who, consciously or unconsciously, help spread this propaganda. With these, he has quickly amassed over 150,000 followers and a diplomatic award from the Lithuanian government.

Kallioniemi, 43, was a postdoctoral researcher studying information manipulation at the University of Tampere, Finland, for many years. But his social media activities increasingly took up his time. Earlier this year, he decided to quit his work at the university and focus entirely on Vatnik Soup. He founded a company that focuses on making and distributing these videos and articles on social media. The Finn hopes to finance the company with a grant from the European Union.

The list of people to whom Kallioniemi dedicates a 'vatnik' is growing. Some of them have been collected in a book, which was recently published by a small Danish publisher. By 'vatniks', one should only think of figures who are directly connected to the Russian government, such as Russian TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov or former Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu. The term covers almost everyone who, according to Kallioniemi, expresses a pro-Russian position or is close to it. British comedian Russell Brand, the late Italian ex-president Silvio Berlusconi, and Hungarian president Viktor Orban have all been the subject of a 'vatnik'. In the Netherlands, according to Kallioniemi, Geert Wilders and Thierry Baudet fall under that term.

You call these people 'vatniks', meaning that they are pushing the same 'pro-Russian' narratives. Where does that narrative come from? And how are they influenced to push it?

“The Kremlin has what I usually call ‘spin doctors’. They basically come up with a few main stories, often a distortion of history, or pure nonsense. For example, it could be about Ukrainian Nazis, or biological laboratories preparing a chemical war. Such stories are then spread via fake accounts and bots on social media. When these narratives – consciously or unconsciously – are picked up by real people, the power of those stories only increases.”

Can you explain how someone adopts such a Russian narrative?

"The fake accounts and bots create a complex interplay on social media between journalists, experts, people and opinions. This gradually creates a system of doubt, which makes people no longer know what the truth is and who to believe. And in the midst of this chaos, certain people prefer a simple explanation and easy solution to complicated problems. For example, the nuanced history of the Ukrainian Azov battalion is completely skipped in the Russian story and reduced to the label 'Nazis'.

Why did you start 'Vatnik Soup' after the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

“Like everyone else, I was shocked by the invasion. I immediately felt that I had to do something. Since I have a lot of experience in social media, I created a Twitter account. I noticed that some people were telling the same stories over and over again: misinformation that showed striking similarities. Then I did small research, first in my own country Finland. I never expected that my threads would become so popular, especially in Ukraine. That was the reason to expand 'Vatnik Soup' internationally.”

Why were the Ukrainian responses in particular important?

"Usually the best feedback comes from people who have seen or experienced Russian aggression themselves. They are the quickest to see mistakes. In addition, positive reactions from Georgia, for example, so any kind of country that threatens to become a Russian puppet, are always good. It is a signal that you are doing something important."

You are mainly active on X, which since its takeover by Elon Musk has become a platform dominated by far-right or pro-Russian voices. Why are you still there?

“I want to be where the discussion is taking place. And that is still on X, despite the fact that the platform has become more and more toxic in recent years. That is where I can still be of significance and bring about change. Many people have left the platform for BlueSky, for example. Only there is no disagreement, no discussion. One opinion dominates, so there is not much point in being active on that platform. I have a greater impact by posting a lot of my own content on X and responding to the posts of others.”

Have you ever been the target of Russian disinformation?

"Yes, that's usually how it goes, it's part of the job. As soon as someone speaks out strongly against Russian narratives, they become a target.

“However, the disinformation directed against me could be worse. There are now a few messages of mine circulating in small pro-Russian circles on social media that I have never written. In addition, I am regularly threatened. The most stressful thing, however, are the lawsuits that have been filed against me. For example, Kim Dotcom, a German entrepreneur to whom I had dedicated a thread on X, sued me in Finland. In the end it came to nothing, but because of these kinds of reports I have had a few bad nights of sleep.”

An important NATO summit begins on Tuesday, with member states' defense spending on the agenda. Do you expect another spike in Russian disinformation during the summit?

"They will do what they did at previous NATO summits anyway: flood the internet with a wave of false stories. Maybe there will be a few new narratives about the war in Ukraine. Probably the most important new development is that Russia will try to shift the focus from Ukraine to the Middle East. The bombing between Israel and Iran suits the country, because it shifts the attention of politicians and citizens from Ukraine. The West then pays less attention to what Russia is doing to its neighbor and the public debate falls silent.

“It is becoming easier every year to spread convincing fake news. The coming years will be wild times in that regard. AI (artificial intelligence) is getting better and better, which means that the Russians can also use it. You can already see on social media platforms such as TikTok or X that it is sometimes extremely difficult to distinguish real news, made by professional journalists, from fake news made with the help of AI. I am really worried about that.”