Ratinho Jr. is the favorite in Paraná and will beat Lula in any scenario, according to a poll.

The latest Neokemp poll shows that Governor Ratinho Junior (PSD) is the strongest candidate among Paraná residents for the 2026 presidential race. The survey shows the politician and son of TV presenter Carlos Massa with a wide lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), both in the first and second rounds.

The combined support for the three right-wing candidates exceeds 63% of voting intentions, solidifying Paraná as one of the states most aligned with the conservative camp in the country.

First-round presidential election scenario

When Ratinho Jr.'s name is included in the race, he appears in the lead by a wide margin. Lula maintains second place, followed by Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil).

Voting intentions for the first round:

• Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 53.0%
• Lula (PT): 24.5%
• Romeu Zema (Novo): 6.4%
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 4.1%
• Don't know: 6.9%
• Blank/Null: 5.0%

Second-round scenario — Ratinho Jr. vs. Lula

In a direct confrontation between Ratinho Junior and Lula, the governor of Paraná further widens his lead. According to the survey, Ratinho would win with more than double the votes of the president.

Results of the second round:

• Ratinho Jr. (PSD): 63.6%
• Lula (PT): 25.4%
• Blank/Null: 5.8%
• Don't know: 5.1%

Methodology

Neokemp Pesquisas interviewed 1,008 people in 97 cities in Paraná between November 4th and 5th, 2025. Confidence level: 95%. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points.

Why does Gazeta do Povo publish election polls?

For years , Gazeta do Povo has published all the voting intention polls conducted by the country's main public opinion institutes. These voting intention polls provide a snapshot in time, based on representative samples of the population.

Interview methods, sample composition and size, and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the methodological information found at the end of Gazeta do Povo articles about electoral polls.

Research published during the 2022 elections, for example, pointed to significant discrepancies in relation to the results presented at the ballot box. Having made these observations, Gazeta do Povo considers that electoral polls, far from being a prediction of election results, are an information tool available to the reader, since the results released have the potential to influence decisions by parties, political leaders, and even the moods of the financial market.