AI predicts 2032 'city killer' asteroid has even higher chance of hitting Earth
An AI site predicted that the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, had increased.
AI site, betideas.com, predicted that rather than the 3.1% chance of the asteroid hitting Earth by 2032, it forecasted a greater than 6% likelihood of the asteroid striking the planet, The Independent reports.
However, NASA's Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring states that the impact probability is currently at 3.6%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially discovered in late December and is believed to be between 130 and 300 feet across, roughly equivalent to the height of Big Ben or the Statue of Liberty.
Although the threat remains low according to scientists, these size estimates place the asteroid in the "city killer" category—capable of causing significant damage if it impacts a populated area.
As more data is gathered, this probability will likely decrease, says NASA.
While some scientists assert that asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a very small chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, earlier data suggests that the asteroid could strike within a narrow impact corridor stretching from South America across the Atlantic to Africa and South Asia.
The object will become too faint to detect with Earth-based telescopes by April 2025, and updates will not be possible until it approaches Earth again in 2028.
The asteroid's increasing chance of impact makes it the most significant risk recorded in modern forecasting.
This potential impact zone includes major cities such as Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai, and Chennai, home to an estimated 110 million people.
The asteroid will continue to be monitored, and updates on its risk will be shared through NASA’s planetary defence resources.
By January 31, it was 30 million miles away from Earth, moving farther from the sun and will come closer to Earth again in 2028.
There's also a 0.3% chance it could hit the Moon instead, causing an explosion and a crater.
Daily Express
