Poll predicts Bardella or Le Pen will lose in presidential election, another candidate will be stronger
While the National Rally (RN) appeared to have a clear advantage in the upcoming presidential election in recent polls, the party's chances of victory are being called into question. All recent studies agree that the far-right party is in the lead, regardless of its candidate: Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. Both hypotheses must be tested now that the Pas-de-Calais MP has been sentenced to ineligibility with provisional execution at the trial of parliamentary assistants of the National Front (the former name of the RN).
The latest Odoxa poll, conducted for Public Sénat and the regional press and published on Tuesday, April 29, confirms this lead: the RN would secure more than 30% of voting intentions. The results would change very little depending on the candidate's name. Marine Le Pen is credited with 32% of voting intentions, while her protégé would obtain 31.5%. Behind them, the central bloc would come in second and qualify for the second round with 20% of voting intentions.
The fact remains that this favorite position only applies to the first round of the 2027 presidential election. Two years before the election, most polls are primarily interested in the names of the candidates who will be on the starting line and only provide estimates for the first round by multiplying the hypotheses. Whereas the Odoxa poll for Public Sénat and the regional press tests the RN's chances of victory in the second round of the presidential election.
According to the study, the candidate of the party with the flame would not be able to maintain his first place in the second round of voting. While both Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella initially prevail against all other political forces, both are dethroned by another candidate in the second round. This opponent is Edouard Philippe, who would be the central bloc's candidate, replacing Emmanuel Macron, who will not be able to run again in 2027.
Whether he faces Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, the former Prime Minister would garner 54% of voting intentions in the second round of the presidential election, according to the Odoxa poll. He would benefit from the transfer of the majority of voters who voted for other candidates in the first round: 44 to 54% of those who supported Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 59 to 73% of those who voted for Raphaël Glucksmann (the candidate close to the Socialist Party with the highest support in the study), and 46 to 57% of those who cast another left-wing ballot. He would also benefit from the support of a portion of right-wing voters, notably 53% of those who voted for the Les Républicains party.
Despite a considerable lead in the first round, the RN does not yet appear able to resist a blockade vote put in place by voters from the left and right in the second round of the presidential election.
L'Internaute
