How to Turn Ukraine into a Steel Porcupine

It's a mammal protected by several spines that serve as protection against potential predators. "The porcupine," this one made of steel, is the metaphor used by several European countries for Ukraine's post-conflict future—a sovereign state capable of preventing a new Russian invasion. To achieve this, Kyiv must have strong armed forces capable of deterring potential aggressors, as well as the support of NATO allies. However, Russia has already spoken out against this plan and promised not to allow its neighbor to adopt this defensive strategy.

This "steel porcupine" tactic isn't entirely new and was borrowed from the Pacific region. Taiwan has also adopted this military doctrine to prevent an ever-imminent Chinese invasion. In the case of Ukraine, a country that has already been attacked, the strategy must be even more robust. The idea has been supported by several figures, particularly European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has repeated the expression in several public statements about the conflict.

Also this Thursday, before the Coalition of Good Will meeting, Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that Ukraine must become a "steel porcupine." Although some doubts remain about what this expression specifically means, the President of the European Commission has emphasized the need to "build a multinational force supported by the United States" and "strengthen Europe's defensive posture." In other words, the European leader admits that it will be necessary to deploy troops on the ground after the conflict ends—and Europeans will have to contribute to this.

Nuclear powers France and the United Kingdom are leading the initiative to send troops to Ukraine post-conflict. This Thursday, during the Coalition of Good Will meeting in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 countries have committed to supporting security forces in Ukraine. It's unclear which states specifically will be present "on land, at sea, and in the air." Some will only provide logistical support—as the United States has already promised.

There is, however, a major obstacle. Russia has already guaranteed that it will not tolerate foreign troops in Ukraine. In fact, this Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning to leaders who decide to deploy military personnel on Ukrainian territory: these security forces will be "legitimate targets." "If there are decisions that lead to peace, to lasting peace, I see no point in their presence on Ukrainian territory," declared the Russian head of state.

In turn, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte argued that it should not be up to Russia to decide on Ukraine's post-conflict security guarantees. In a challenge to the Kremlin, the leader of the transatlantic alliance emphasized that Ukraine is a "sovereign country": "It is not up to Russia to decide what Ukraine wants." "Finland did not ask Russia for approval to join NATO. We are sovereign nations. If Ukraine wants security forces to support peace, that is up to them."

In a war whose end still seems far off, this topic will be a point of contention in potential peace negotiations. On the one hand, Europe and NATO intend to provide robust security guarantees to Ukraine , in order to build a new security architecture in the wake of the war. On the other, Russia began its invasion demanding the "demilitarization" of its neighboring country—and foreign troops would constitute a red line.

The last meeting of the Goodwill Coalition was attended by more than 30 participating countries , including Portugal. Prior to the meeting, there was an expectation that a concrete plan would be presented outlining the security guarantees that the countries within that group of states would be willing to provide to Ukraine. US Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff was also present at the beginning of the meeting, which concluded with a call to US President Donald Trump.

At the end of the meeting, there wasn't the clarity initially expected, but some clues were dropped regarding potential plans. In her public statements, Ursula von der Leyen again used the term "steel porcupine," which must become "indigestible to current and future predators." She also outlined the three vectors of this strategy, which she hopes will be implemented in post-conflict Ukraine.

The "steel porcupine" strategy is inevitably linked to "strong, well-equipped, and modern armed forces." "Our defense industries are accelerating cooperation to ensure this happens. Europe will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers. Nearly 90,000 have already been trained. And we are committed to doing more," the President of the European Commission emphasized in a statement released after the Coalition of Good Will meeting.

"The second layer is the security forces," Ursula von der Leyen emphasized, noting that 26 countries are willing "to deploy troops on the ground, in the air, and at sea." "This must ensure lasting peace and deter future aggression," the European Commission President stated, adding, however, that American support will be necessary.

The third point is a "strong and credible stance" for European defense. "We need more investment in defense," said Ursula von der Leyen, noting that the European Union (EU) is allowing its 27 member states to increase defense spending. The EU must thus be able to demonstrate to Russia that it can respond to threats—and the Kremlin must understand that the response will be "devastating" if it invades Ukraine again or even risks attacking a European country.

After the meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured that the "basis for the plan" to turn Ukraine into a "steel porcupine" exists, both in terms of forces and in terms of "concrete steps" that will be taken in the future. Regarding troops on the ground, the central element, the head of state noted that it has already been "defined which countries will participate in which security components": "On land, air, sea, cyberspace, and even those that, without their own forces, can contribute financially. This also includes specific production requirements."

For the Ukrainian leader, "strong" Armed Forces are essential—and this includes several aspects, such as "financing, weapons, and production" of military equipment. However, Volodymyr Zelensky criticized European defense investment. "We note that European production lines are not functioning satisfactorily," lamented the head of state, calling for an increase in not only the speed but also the number of weapons produced.

"Ukraine itself has underutilized production capacity due to a lack of funding," he lamented, noting, however, that "almost 60% of all weapons are produced in Ukraine." "Ukrainians are successful in this, and all European countries should also be successful in arms production," Volodymyr Zelensky continued.

For decades, Europeans have adopted policies that have reinforced their dependence on the American military-industrial complex. In 2025, Europeans will continue to need weapons and war equipment from the United States, whose military power is inevitably greater. With isolationist voices gaining prominence within the Trump administration, Volodymyr Zelensky argues that "Europe's technological leadership is critically important": "Europe must lead. This is precisely what we want to promote while developing security guarantees for Ukraine."

Ensuring that Ukraine becomes a "steel porcupine" thus also involves strengthening European military capabilities—and it goes beyond troops on the ground. In fact, just this Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the United States will cut some of the funding provided to security programs that supported countries bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states.

This new security strategy for Ukraine will primarily be a European effort. The United States will provide logistical and strategic support (and may even help monitor the airspace of a demilitarized zone), but it won't go beyond that. The Trump administration also refuses to send weapons to Ukrainian territory—the remaining NATO member states are now financing them, even if Washington makes them available.

Although the United States has changed its approach, at a press conference alongside Emmanuel Macron in Paris following the last meeting of the Coalition of Good Will, Volodymyr Zelensky assured that it is "important" for Washington to "stand by" Europe: "Many things depend on them." The French president preferred to use the term "American security network," but nonetheless emphasized its importance.

There's already a plan, countries are already committing, and documents are already being prepared to mobilize Western security forces to Ukraine in the post-conflict period, which will help the country become the "steel porcupine." The French president has already mentioned sending "a few thousand men," a force that "is not intended to maintain a front line or engage in intense conflict, but to demonstrate solidarity from a strategic point of view."

On land, Emmanuel Macron spoke of "thousands of men," and Volodymyr Zelensky has already commented on rumors circulating in Ukrainian media that the number could be 10,000, although he did not confirm this figure this Friday: "I won't talk about the exact number, but what matters is that we are having discussions. It won't be hundreds, but thousands. It's a fact, but we're still too early to go into details."

Ukrainian newspapers put forward more ambitious figures: between 25,000 and 30,000 troops . The mission would be led by the United Kingdom, with ten countries from the Coalition of Good Will agreeing to send troops to the field. In addition to British and French troops, military personnel from the Netherlands , Australia , Canada , and Nordic and Baltic countries could be deployed to Ukrainian territory.

In contrast, although they may provide other support, Bulgaria, Italy, Finland, Poland, and Romania have already guaranteed that they will not send troops to Ukraine. Germany is still undecided, awaiting further details. A German government spokesperson promised a decision when "the terms of the agreement are clearer": "This means understanding the degree and extent of US involvement, as well as the outcome of the negotiation process, among other factors."

At sea, Turkey will play a key role in monitoring shipping in the Black Sea , access to which through the Turkish passages of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits was closed by Ankara at the beginning of the conflict. "The Turks are part of the Coalition of Good Will and are responsible for developing the plan for the Black Sea," said the Chief of Staff of the French Navy, Admiral Nicolas Vaujour, adding that "certain areas will have to be demined" to ensure the safety of maritime traffic. Bulgaria will also have a role to play.

Several questions remain about the air and anti-aircraft component—and who would provide it. In late August, the Financial Times reported that the United States had offered to play a role in this aspect of Ukraine's security guarantees. The Washington Post wrote this Thursday that the Trump administration could provide air defense systems to establish an aerial shield. At the same time, Donald Trump pledged to share classified information with countries on the ground.

A European source noted , however, that while the US is defending Ukrainian skies, it is still undecided about whether this initiative would involve American aircraft, drones, and pilots. Publicly, Emmanuel Macron postponed clarifications regarding the plans and explained that this has a strategic motive. The reason? "We don't want to give Russia the details of our organization." However, there is a suspicion that the Europeans are still waiting for confirmation from the American "safety network."

Martin Quencez, of the German Marshall Fund think tank , told the New York Times that it's still unclear "whether the United States is ready to provide the rearguard support that many countries expect." The signs are "positive," the expert said, but they haven't yet materialized. However, in a mid-August interview, Donald Trump already expressed his "readiness to help" with the mission, likely "in terms of air support," as long as the Europeans send troops on the ground.

This Western mission, Emmanuel Macron emphasized, would not be "near the front line," but rather in "areas that are still being defined" within Ukrainian territory. In parallel, the United States could perhaps play a more important role in a demilitarized zone . This possibility is being discussed by the Pentagon and was advanced this Friday by the American channel NBC .

This demilitarized zone would be close to the current front line and would be located on the border between Ukrainian territories and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, although its exact location is unclear. The United States would be responsible for monitoring this region, using drones and satellites for this purpose, in a coordinated effort with other countries. This would be a second mission, this one more ambitious and demanding.

The security of this region could be monitored by troops from NATO countries or even, according to NBC, from countries outside the transatlantic alliance, such as Saudi Arabia or Bangladesh . However, one thing is certain: there will be no US troops on Ukrainian territory, even if the main responsibilities for this demilitarized zone are assigned to Washington.

Faced with all these plans, Russia's position has been adamant: it will not accept foreign troops in Ukraine , thus attempting to derail the "steel porcupine" strategy devised by European countries. The Kremlin does not refuse to enter into negotiations with the United States on security guarantees, but only if this red line is not crossed.

"We cannot agree that we will resolve security issues, collective security, without the Russian Federation. It won't work," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in mid-August. "I am sure that the West, and above all the United States, understand perfectly well that discussing serious security issues without the Russian Federation is a utopia, a path that leads nowhere."

Criticism was even stronger during and after the Coalition of Good Will meeting. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was categorical : "Russia will not discuss a completely unacceptable foreign intervention in Ukraine in any shape or form." The diplomatic official denounced that "Western warmongers" view Ukraine as "ground" for "training their weapons."

Vladimir Putin conveyed the same idea: Moscow does not tolerate foreign troops in Ukraine . Russia used three arguments to invade its neighboring country: denazification, demilitarization, and Kyiv's rapprochement with NATO. In this regard, the Kremlin has not changed its approach: Ukraine must remain a country that is not neutral and must not pose a danger to the Russian Federation.

Russia also has a different understanding of security guarantees. Viewing Ukraine as a country within its "zone of influence," Moscow wants the country to never join NATO , something Vladimir Putin recently called "unacceptable." "The security of one country cannot be at the expense of the security of another country, in this case the Russian Federation," the Russian president explained.

Another point on which Russia disagrees concerns a reduction in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, one of the vectors for turning Ukraine into a "steel porcupine." The Kremlin wants Kyiv's troops to be outmanned and outgunned. "The ideal scenario for Russia is for Ukraine to be left defenseless and subjugated," Samuel Charap, an expert at the Rand Corporation think tank , told the New York Times.

Europe wants no "predator" to attack the "porcupine" again. However, the aggressor continues to wage war against a country it wants to see subjugated and stripped of its sovereignty. Russia will continue to oppose the European strategy. "In a positive negotiation outcome, both sides would be able to defend themselves without threatening each other," argued Samuel Charap. Between these two poles, the United States appears to be the only one capable of breaking this impasse.