Geopolitical chess in the Caucasus

News: Berrak Gungor

As tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia continue, all eyes have turned to the balance of power in the South Caucasus. The latest report published by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank has brought to the agenda the claim that the US is preparing to resolve the disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia and take control of the Zangezur Corridor. According to the report, the US will reshape transit trade routes in the region, directly connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, and aim to control the corridor through an American logistics company.

IT BROUGHT BACK TO THE AGENDA WITH THE TRUMP PERIOD

This plan was actually on the agenda during the term of former President Joe Biden. However, it was shelved due to deteriorating diplomatic relations. Now, with the start of Donald Trump’s second term, the silent competition seems to have accelerated again. According to the South Caucasus Research Center, the Trump administration is inclined to establish a new logistics network via Zangezur in order to reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

DETENTIONS, DEATHS AND THE GROWING DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

While these claims regarding the Zangezur Corridor are on the agenda, the tension between Russia and Azerbaijan is also of a kind that will change the balance on the chessboard. The tension that started with the downing of the Azerbaijani passenger plane by Russia has reached its peak with the recent events. The killing of two Azerbaijani citizens by Russian special forces in Yekaterinburg and the harsh detention and torture of some other people have caused anger in Baku. Azerbaijan has cancelled all planned state contacts. Some Russian citizens have been detained in Baku; among them were the editors of the Sputnik news agency. Events by Russian artists have also been cancelled.

The increasing diplomatic tension between the two countries has brought the Zangezur Corridor issue back to the agenda. According to experts, the acceleration of this plan by the US is not only a logistical need, but also a strategic step to break Russia's power in the South Caucasus. In other words, the Zangezur Corridor is not just a transportation project, but also a line where the power architecture in the region is being reshaped. Azerbaijan's proposal for neutral control and Russia's desire to maintain its influence through control coincide with the US's plan to introduce a Western company into the region.

MARKOV: “THE CRISIS STARTED WITH THE CRASH OF THE PLANE”

On July 2, Azerbaijani MP Aydin Huseynov told Tele1 that relations between the countries had become more difficult after the downing of the Azeri passenger plane by Russia. Huseynov said that Russia did not accept responsibility for the incident and that the perpetrators had not been punished. Political scientist Sergey Markov, a former advisor to Putin, also spoke to Tele1.

Markov said that the breaking point of the conflict was the downed plane. “The reason for the crash was that the plane was in the line of fire in the Russian-Chechen airspace. Russia did not accept responsibility, and even the people involved were rewarded. This is the main reason for the current conflicts. There is also discontent in Russia,” he said.

FRANCE AND ARMENIA CLAIMS

Markov also stated that there is a strong belief in a “Western conspiracy” in Russia on the issue. Accordingly, France has undertaken the task of separating Armenia and England Azerbaijan from Russia. This plan is also being carried out through the intelligence services and the diaspora. According to Markov, with this move, the West wants to eliminate Russian sovereignty in the South Caucasus and dominate the oil and gas resources.

“PUTIN AND ALIYEV FRIENDSHIP WILL OVERCOME THE CRISIS”

Despite all this tense picture, Markov drew attention to the personal relations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and said that the crisis could be overcome. “They both graduated from the best universities of the Soviet Union. They speak the same language. They are very experienced and statesmen who respect each other,” he said, giving the message that leader diplomacy would come into play.

Source: NEWS CENTER